New York Red Bulls sit 17th and have been inconsistent at home, picking up just one win in their last five with two losses bookending a pair of draws. FC Dallas arrive in better shape, unbeaten in four of their last five away from home and currently four places above the Red Bulls in the standings.

The defensive numbers for Dallas on the road are striking. They have kept a clean sheet in half their away games this season, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals per game on the road, well below the league norm. Their BTTS rate of zero percent away from home stands in sharp contrast to the league average of 58 percent. Meanwhile New York have been leaking at both ends, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded at home, with O2.5 landing in three of four home matches.

This looks tighter than a mid-table clash might suggest on the surface. Dallas travel as the more structured side and the data suggests they are capable of keeping this one low-scoring. The visitors look undervalued here.