New York City come into this on a mixed run of three wins and two losses in their last five, but their home record tells a more compelling story. They are averaging 2.8 goals scored per home game while conceding 1.2, and both BTTS and Over 2.5 have landed in 75% of their home fixtures this season, well above the league averages. A clean sheet has come just once at home, suggesting an open, attacking style that tends to produce entertaining games.

FC Cincinnati arrive in poor shape, winless in four of their last five away from home and sitting 21st in the standings. They have kept zero clean sheets on the road this season while conceding 3.0 goals per away game on average, the worst possible profile to bring to a side with NYCFC's attacking output.

With no head-to-head history to lean on, the current form and underlying numbers do the talking. Goals look likely here, and the hosts appear to hold a significant advantage that the standings gap only reinforces.