New England Revolution arrive into this fixture in excellent home form, collecting four wins and a draw from their last five at Gillette Stadium. Their attacking output at home has been sharp, averaging 2.6 goals per game, but the more striking number is how rarely they have conceded, keeping clean sheets in 60% of home matches with an average of just 0.4 goals allowed. Nashville arrive third in the table and have been similarly miserly on the road, conceding just 0.3 per game with a 67% away clean sheet rate.

The goal data here tells a compelling story. Nashville's away BTTS rate of 17% and Over 2.5 rate of 17% are dramatically below the league average of 58% and 60% respectively, pointing firmly toward a low-scoring, defensively structured contest. Both defenses are clearly operating at a level well above the norm this season.

This looks considerably tighter than a casual glance at the standings might suggest, and the visitors are not without a case here despite travelling to a side in fine home form.