New England have been in fine domestic form, collecting four wins and a draw from their last five to sit fourth in the league. What stands out about their home record is the defensive solidity — a clean sheet rate of 50% and an average of just 0.5 goals conceded per home game points to a backline that is genuinely difficult to break down. That said, the attacking output has been sharp too, averaging 2.5 goals per home match.

Minnesota arrive in decent enough shape but their away record tells a more open story. Their road games have gone over 2.5 goals in 86% of matches this season — well above the league average of 62% — and they have kept just one clean sheet away from home all season.

This sets up as a potential one-sided affair in terms of control. New England's defensive efficiency against Minnesota's leaky away record suggests the hosts are undervalued here, and the goal data leans toward a high-scoring game despite Revs keeping it tight at home.