New England Revolution arrive into this one in excellent shape, having won four consecutive matches after an opening-day defeat. That home record is particularly eye-catching from a defensive standpoint, with the Revolution keeping clean sheets in half their home games and conceding just 0.5 goals per home match on average. Charlotte, meanwhile, have been leaky on the road all season, failing to keep a single away clean sheet and shipping 2.2 goals per game on their travels.

The over 2.5 angle looks well-supported here. Both sides are hitting that threshold in 75% of their respective home and away matches, comfortably above the league average of 64%. Charlotte's away BTTS figure of 75% is notable, but given how stingy New England have been at home, goals may flow predominantly in one direction rather than both.

With no head-to-head history to lean on, current form has to do the heavy lifting, and it points firmly toward the Revolution. This one looks more straightforward than the standings might suggest.