Charlotte come into this in poor form, winning just one of their last five, but their home record this season tells a more interesting story. Their BTTS rate of 80% and Over 2.5 rate of 80% are both well above the league average, and they are averaging 2.4 goals scored per home game. They contribute heavily to open, high-scoring affairs when playing in front of their own supporters.

New York City, however, look like they could suppress that tendency somewhat. Away from home they have been defensively poor with a 0% clean sheet rate, yet they are scoring only 0.8 goals per away game and landing well below the league average for Over 2.5 and BTTS. They arrive as the lowest-ranked side in the division, having lost four of their last five.

The limited head-to-head history favors Charlotte, and form points to the hosts as the stronger side here. This looks like a match where Charlotte should win, though New York City's low away scoring output introduces some caution around the goal totals.