Fluminense come into this in mixed form, winning two of their last five but losing on either side of that run, which adds a layer of unpredictability to a side that nonetheless carries genuine quality in fourth place. At home this season they have been involved in plenty of action, with BTTS and over 2.5 goals both landing in 67% of matches against a league average of 57% and 48% respectively, suggesting their games tend to open up at the Maracana.

Chapecoense arrive as one of the division's bottom sides and have been alarmingly passive on the road. Their away BTTS rate of just 25% and an over 2.5 rate of 0% tells its own story, as does an average of only 0.2 goals scored per away game. They are not a side that tends to contribute offensively when travelling.

The combination of a free-scoring home side against a visiting team that rarely creates and concedes nearly two per away game points toward Fluminense dominance. The visitors look undervalued only in the sense that the margin of defeat could be significant. This one looks more one-sided than a tight table position gap might suggest.