Coritiba head into this mid-table Serie A clash in decent shape, sitting sixth and carrying back-to-back home wins into the weekend. Their home record this season has been notably low-scoring, however, with BTTS landing in just 43% of matches and Over 2.5 goals in a mere 14% — both well below the league averages of 59% and 50% respectively. They average just 1.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded at home, suggesting a compact, defensively cautious setup in front of their own supporters.

Bahia arrive seventh and without a win in their last five away from home, though they have shown a greater tendency to be involved in open games on the road, with BTTS at 57% and Over 2.5 at 57% away this season. They score and concede freely when travelling, averaging 1.3 and 1.4 respectively.

With no head-to-head history to draw on, Coritiba's stingy home environment looks likely to cancel out Bahia's more expansive away tendencies. This one looks tighter and lower-scoring than Bahia's away stats might initially suggest.