Two sides separated by a single point and both in desperate need of a result make this a genuinely tense Serie B relegation six-pointer. Sudtirol have been wretched at home of late, picking up just two points from their last five, but they do hold the historical edge in this fixture with a win and a draw from the only two previous meetings. Bari arrive with back-to-back wins steadying the ship after a rough run, though their away defensive record this season has been notably poor, conceding at nearly two goals per game on the road.

Despite both sides needing to win, the data suggests this could be a cagey, low-scoring affair. Sudtirol's home BTTS and Over 2.5 rates sit below the Serie B average, and Bari's away attacking output has been modest. The tension of the occasion and the stakes involved point to a tight, nervy contest where a single moment could prove decisive. This looks closer than a straightforward read of recent form might imply.