Bari head into this relegation-zone scrap in desperate need of points, sitting 17th and with a deeply inconsistent run of form that has seen them win just twice in their last five. Their home record offers little comfort either, conceding more than they score on average and keeping a clean sheet in only around one in five home games. Sudtirol arrive in marginally better shape league-position wise but have been toothless on the road, failing to win any of their last five away fixtures and averaging just a goal per game in those outings.

The head-to-head history, albeit limited, leans against Bari, who are yet to beat Sudtirol in two attempts. Both sides show BTTS rates above the league average, suggesting defensive vulnerability on both ends despite the low scoring averages. Sudtirol's away Over 2.5 rate is notably below the league norm, pointing toward a tight, scrappy affair. This one looks closer and more cagey than a straightforward home win, and Sudtirol look undervalued as a road side with nothing to fear here.