Tondela head into this one in desperate shape, sitting 17th and winless in four of their last five at home, where they average just 0.7 goals scored per game. Their BTTS rate of 38% in home fixtures is well below the Primeira Liga average of 48%, pointing to low-scoring, defensive affairs when they host — though not necessarily clean sheets, with a goals conceded average of 1.3 per game.

Moreirense arrive in far better health, sitting mid-table and with two wins from their last five away days. Their away BTTS rate of 50% sits right at the league norm, and they carry a genuine attacking threat on the road, averaging 1.1 goals per game away from home.

The limited head-to-head data favors the visitors, and the form gap between these sides is significant. This looks more comfortable for Moreirense than the league positions alone might suggest, with the hosts' attacking struggles making life difficult for themselves.