St Etienne host Rodez in what looks like a pivotal Ligue 2 clash between two sides separated by just one place and likely chasing the same end-of-season objective. The hosts have been inconsistent lately, winning just two of their last five, though their home record carries genuine weight — they average 2.3 goals scored per game at home while keeping things tight defensively with a 41% clean sheet rate. Rodez arrive in considerably sharper form, unbeaten in four of their last five away trips, and their 71% BTTS rate on the road — well above the league average of 52% — suggests they tend to open games up wherever they go.

That Rodez away profile is the key detail here. They concede regularly on their travels despite picking up results, which sets up a potentially open contest. The data suggests Rodez are undervalued by those focused purely on the league table, and this match looks tighter than a home-versus-fourth narrative might imply.