Mechelen arrive at this one in poor form, having lost four of their last five, and their away record this season offers little encouragement. Conceding an average of 1.6 goals per away game while scoring just 1.3 tells a story of a side that struggles to keep things tight on the road, and their clean sheet rate of just 24% away from home underlines that vulnerability.

The BTTS angle is worth noting — Mechelen's away matches have seen both teams score 65% of the time, noticeably above the Belgian Pro League average of 55%, suggesting their defensive frailty tends to bring games to life even when they're not at their best.

With no H2H data to lean on, the form differential does the heavy lifting here. Mechelen's run of results points to a side low on confidence, and this looks like a fixture where Union SG, even with limited data on their end, hold a meaningful advantage.