Gent head into this one in poor form, collecting just two points from their last five league outings with three defeats in that run. Sitting seventh, their home record this season tells a cautious story — BTTS landing in just over half of their home games and Over 2.5 arriving well below the league average, suggesting Gent matches tend to be lower-scoring affairs than the Belgian Pro League norm. They average 1.5 goals scored at home but have kept clean sheets in nearly a third of those games, so defensive solidity is present even if the attack has been muted.

The lack of data on Union SG and no head-to-head history makes this a difficult match to read from the away side's perspective. What the data does suggest is that Gent's home environment produces tight, contained football. This looks like a match that could easily stay under the goal line, and Gent's recent wobble makes it closer than a home fixture might ordinarily imply.